It’s Not Just AIPAC: How Jamaal Bowman Alienated Voters Who Once Supported Him

If the polling is accurate, Rep. Jamaal Bowman is the heavy underdog in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for New York’s 16th Congressional District.

The topline story of the race is, understandably, pro-Israel groups’ record-breaking spending against Bowman, a passionate pro-Palestinian advocate who has dubbed Israel’s invasion of Gaza a “genocide.” Super PACs backing Bowman’s challenger, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, have outspent pro-Bowman super PACs on the airwaves by a 9-to-1 margin, helping make it the most expensive House primary in history. The independent spending arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee alone has spent $14.6 million on television, digital and direct-mail advertisements.

“They are so afraid of us — those who oppose the working class, multiracial, multieconomic, multicultural democracy that we are trying to build,” Bowman told volunteers getting ready to canvas the Bronx’s Co-Op City neighborhood on May 26. “They’re spending more money in this race than they have ever spent in the history of any race. That’s how afraid AIPAC is.”

It is impossible to predict the results of a counterfactual scenario where Bowman did not face this kind of spending. But while he would have undoubtedly fared better if he were not up against an avalanche of super PAC money, his problems predate the lopsided advertising blitz.

Bowman, 48, was trailing Latimer, 70, by 17 percentage points in early April, before advertising began, according to a poll commissioned by the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, which is supporting Latimer. The mid-April internal poll released by Bowman’s campaign, by contrast, had him up by one percentage point.

The Latimer campaign’s own internal polling in January,