Israeli and Iranian strikes transform Middle East geopolitics

CNN —

Israel and Iran have now thrust the Middle East into a dangerous new era by erasing the taboo against overt military strikes on one another’s territory.

The question now is whether each side’s imperatives to demonstrate deterrence and to save face have been satisfied – or whether the enemies are destined to enter a new cycle of escalation that could make the crisis even more perilous.

Most immediately, the ball is in Iran’s court after Israel conducted strikes near the city of Isfahan early Friday.

An Israeli anti-missile system operates on April 14 after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel.

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Initial reports suggest that the action was limited and, according to US officials, did not target Iranian nuclear sites in the area. Instead, it may have been intended to demonstrate Israeli capacity to penetrate deep into Iran following Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel last weekend, which was largely thwarted.

Still, the fact that Israel chose a target inside Iran rather than confining its response to Iranian proxies in Syria or Iraq, for instance, significantly ups the ante in the confrontation and raises the possibility that the showdown could quickly get out of control.

The Israeli action last weekend that was largely repulsed by Israeli, US and allied defensive systems followed an Israeli strike on Iranian consular buildings in Damascus, Syria, that killed two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers.

With the latest twist of the crisis, Israel’s strikes appeared to be trying to thread a needle in demonstrating that it can evade Iranian defenses at will – and in the