Israel must not fall into a trap of retaliation and risk disaster, warns ex top diplomat Alon Pinkas

Israel is facing a “major dilemma” over whether to retaliate against Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile attack, a top former Israeli diplomat has said.

Alon Pinkas, chief advisor to two Israeli prime ministers, said an Israeli response couldrisk a wider escalation of the war but ignoring the assault could allow Iran to “attack with impunity”.

Describing Tehran’s onslaught overnight on Saturday as a “potential game-changer” due to directly targeting Israel, he said it was crucial for Tel Aviv to consider carefully its next move.

Writing in The Independent, the leading Israeli commentator said: “An Israeli retaliatory strike, commensurate with the scale of the Iranian attack would not merely represent a tit-for-tat reaction but may potentially constitute escalation with far reaching consequences and regional implications.”

His intervention comes after the IDF said the barrage would be met with a “response” following US president Joe Biden’s warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would not support any Israeli counterattack.

Mr Pinkas, who served as chief of staff to Israel’s foreign ministry between 1999 and 2000, said: “An Israeli retaliation could almost inevitably lead to a broad escalation and a region-wide conflict.

“This may affect oil prices, commercial maritime routs from China to Europe, US and NATO policy on Ukraine — given Iran’s close ties and mutual-support with Russia.

“Yet failure to respond would set in place a new paradigm, that Iran can attack Israel with impunity. With lessons learnt, the next round may not be as innocuous as this one turned out to be.”

On Saturday, Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to an Israeli strike on Tehran’s embassy