Independent voters could decide the election — and they lean very differently in each state

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hit the stage tonight for the presidential debate, they will need to appeal to two main groups who may still be swayed: the undecideds, and the independents.

By nature, independent voters can be hard to pin down. The term encompasses demographic groups from all walks of life, who don’t have a strong allegiance to either the Republicans or the Democrats.

For this reason, a nationwide picture of how independents will vote can be difficult to predict — but statewide data can be more telling, as independent voters are shaped by similar local factors, dialogues, and policy issues.

Among independents, Harris leads in all the swing states — except Arizona, where Trump leads by a substantial +14 points. The figures are from a set of new polls by Morning Consult up to September 8.

Who independent voters want as the next president varies significantly from state to state, with Harris’ lead in the swing states ranging from +20 points in Wisconsin, to just +5 in Pennsylvania.

But there is more to independents than just swing states. In two overall Republican states, where Trump won the last two elections, the polls show that Harris has the support of independent voters.

Trump has the lead in both Florida and Texas, by +2 points and +9 points.

Yet when looking just at independent voters, the numbers switch up in favor of a Harris presidency; with a substantial +10-point lead for the Democratic candidate in Florida.

Tonight’s debate will be in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a state which has become a weekly pitstop for both presidential campaigns struggling to carve out a lead.

Among independent voters, Harris is ahead, but by a smaller margin than other states (+5 points).

Notably, 1 in 5 independent