In south India, BJP wins the battle but loses the war

The BJP on Tuesday made substantial gains in some states in the south but lost its 2019 record of being the single-largest party overall across the five states. Back then, 25 of its seats five years ago came from Karnataka and four in Karnataka, two more than the Congress’s tally of 27. This time too the BJP won 29 seats, but the Congress has done better by winning 40 constituencies in the south. So where did the BJP gain and where did it lose?

In 2019, the BJP’s vote share in Andhra Pradesh was 0.96 per cent. The party was almost wiped out after Telugu Desam Party (TDP), its longtime ally from 1999, joined the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) right before the elections. The party’s performance was also affected by the rise of YSR Congress Party, which had won 22 of the 25 seats in the state.
However, in 2024, the party formed an alliance with TDP and Telugu actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party. The alliance reaped dividends, with BJP winning three of the six seats it contested in with a vote share of 13.07 per cent.
This was consistent with its past record of vote shares — in 1999 in undivided Andhra Pradesh, the BJP had a vote share of 9.90 per cent. Its vote share was 8.41 per cent in 2004, 3.75 per cent in 2009 and 7.18 per cent in 2014.

The BJP had made substantial gains in Telangana — a state which was carved out of Andhra Pradesh in 2014 — in the last two elections. The year Telangana was formed, the BJP won a single seat in the state and had a vote share of 10.37 per cent. In 2019, it tripled its fortunes winning four seats, with a vote share of 19.45 per cent.
In 2024, it continued the juggernaut winning eight of the 17 parliament seats in the state. The party’s vote share also