In leads: BJP short of 240, Congress close to 100 in remarkable turnaround

Belying all exit poll predictions, the BJP appeared to be struggling to reach even the 240 mark on its own in leads available till noon Tuesday for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, suffering unexpected reverses in Uttar Pradesh and losses in Rajasthan, Bihar and Karnataka — states where the party dominated in 2019. The party is suffering reverses in West Bengal, as well.

Overall, by noon, the BJP is leading in 238 seats. Other key NDA allies TDP is leading in 16 seats and Jan Sena in 2 seats in Andhra Pradesh; Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in 15 seats and LJP in 5 in Bihar; Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena in 6 seats in Maharashtra; and, JD(S) in three in Karnataka.

On the other hand, the Opposition INDIA alliance is shaping to script a remarkable turnaround, nearing 220 seats with Congress ahead in 95 seats, SP in 36, TMC in 32, DMK in 21, Shiv Sena (UBT) in 11, NCP (Sharad Pawar) in 8 and RJD in 5, followed by other partners.

If these numbers hold, the BJP will have to depend on its NDA allies to form the Central Government, especially with allies TDP and JD(U) doing well. And this would also herald the return of a coalition government after a decade, a situation which the Narendra Modi-led BJP has not experienced so far at the Centre.

Key NDA ally Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP scripted a fairytale comeback in Andhra Pradesh as it has crossed the halfway mark in the 175-member state assembly and is leading in 16 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested. The veteran Naidu is now set to emerge as a kingmaker at the Centre.

In Bihar, too, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is leading in 14 seats as compared to ally BJP’s 11 in the state. Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD is leading in 5.

Yet, the story of these elections so far is Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is