In Karnataka, BJP-JD(S) to face first big challenge tomorrow, Congress bets on welfare

In the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka that go to polls on Friday, no single overwhelming factor came to the fore during the campaign. The Modi factor, a BJP-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance, the Congress’s welfare guarantees, a high cost of living, the murder of a young woman in distant Hubbali, and the fear of the changing of the Constitution are all undercurrents at play in the region.

In 2019, when the Modi factor and national security issues rose to the fore to sweep aside a Congress-JD(S) alliance, the BJP won 11 of the 14 seats by big margins (the margins were narrow only in two of the 14 seats). This time, with no overwhelming factor in its favour, the BJP is being helped by its largely smooth alliance with the JD(S) that has a large base among the dominant Vokkaliga community in south Karnataka, with the support enjoyed by PM Modi in the middle class being the icing on the cake for the parties.

The Congress that came to power in Karnataka last year is banking on the implementation of the five guarantees given to voters, a fresh set of guarantees for the Lok Sabha polls, and the popularity of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah among some caste groups and minorities to pose a challenge to the BJP-JD(S) alliance.

“Essentially, the dominant castes with land and resources — the Vokkaligas and Lingayats — are supporting the BJP-JD(S) alliance due to various local reasons and the Modi factor. The weaker castes who have resources and work as farmhands or labourers are looking towards the Congress because of the guarantees given and promised,” said Ravi Challakere, a gram panchayat member from the Lingayat community in the SC-reserved Chitradurga Lok Sabha constituency.

One of the factors apparent on the ground is the cohesion between