In high-profile UP seat, will simmering anger over Agnipath trump caste loyalties?

While caste is one of the major drivers of the electoral discourse and voting patterns in India, for several youngsters in Uttar Pradesh’s Prayagraj district unemployment and the Agnipath recruitment scheme are at the top of their agenda. This is apparent in the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat, which votes on Saturday, and comprises five of the 12 Assembly segments in Prayagraj district: Allahabad North, Allahabad West, Soraon, Phaphamau, and Phulpur.

Phulpur is a high-profile Lok Sabha constituency that has been represented by stalwarts such as Jawaharlal Nehru, his sister Vijaya Lakshmi Pandit, and former Prime Minister V P Singh. In recent years, among those who have represented it in the recent past are gangster Atiq Ahmed (won in 2004 on a Samajwadi Party ticket), who was shot dead last year while being taken to a court-mandated medical check-up, and current Uttar Pradesh Deputy CM Keshav Maurya who won in 2014. Five years ago, the BJP’s Kesari Devi Patel clinched the seat by 1.71 lakh votes.

To maintain its hold on the seat this time, the BJP has fielded Phulpur MLA Praveen Patel who is from the dominant Kurmi community. Of the 20 lakh voters in Phulpur, the most are Kurmis at 3 lakh, followed by around 2.5 lakh Muslims, two lakh each of Yadavs and Brahmins, and approximately 3.5 lakh Dalits divided into two subgroups, and around 1.5 lakh Mauryas. Other communities such as Vaishyas and Binds also play a decisive role here.

To counter the BJP’s Kurmi play, the SP has fielded Amarnath Singh Maurya from the Maurya community, and the BSP’s Jagannath Pal is from the shepherd community. All three candidates are OBCs, giving the decisive vote to upper castes such as Brahmins, Thakurs, and Kayasthas. This gives the BJP the edge as far