In Arizona, Democrats Could See Opportunity in an 1864 Abortion Ban

Democrats in Arizona are eager for a fight over abortion access in the state, a political battleground where they’ll need every advantage to support President Biden and hang on to a key Senate seat.

But the battle lines have grown increasingly muddled amid a heated legal dispute over which Republican-backed restrictions will be on the books come November.

After the party ushered in a 15-week abortion ban in 2022 with almost no exceptions, with support from anti-abortion groups, some Republicans are now trying to get that law tossed. They instead favor an even more restrictive law dating to the 1800s that effectively bans the procedure entirely. And some Democrats, though they are strongly against both measures, are quietly acknowledging that a near-total ban could be a boon as they look to inspire voters to turn out.

Since the Supreme Court’sdecision in the Dobbs case, overturning of Roe v. Wade and effectively returning the issue for states to decide, voters have come out in force to overwhelmingly back measures aimed at protecting abortion access, even in Republican-led states. And if the stricter ban is upheld, “there’s probably a benefit” for Democrats campaigning on abortion access, said Tresa Undem, a public opinion researcher who studies abortion.

“Certainly, if there’s a total ban, voters are going to be mobilized on this issue,” Ms. Undem said.

The unusual dynamic stems from various courts’ interpretations of Arizona’s 15-week ban, signed by former Gov. Doug Ducey a few months before the Dobbs ruling doing away with a constitutional right to abortion. Republicans and advocates of the 15-week ban had intended for the legislation to give way to restrictions enacted in 1864, when Arizona was still a territory.