If Trump wants to win, here’s what he needs to do

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With former President Donald Trump having secured enough delegates to win the GOP nomination, the party can rest confident in the knowledge that their nominee led them to victory in 2016 – and led them to outperform expectations in 2020. Indeed, while he narrowly lost the Electoral College and the White House, the GOP surprisingly gained House seats as well as only narrowly lost the Senate (after disappointing showings in runoffs in Georgia).

The most important thing for Republicans right now is to ensure unity as they likely head into the longest general election campaign in U.S. history.

One thing we learned in Trump’s rather lopsided victorious romp through the primaries (he only lost Vermont and the District of Columbia – neither of which will be fertile territory for the GOP in the fall) is how strongly he dominates the party. Three consecutive nominations for president. The last person to do that was President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

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At the same time, the semi-contested primaries, especially Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, identified the two streams of the Republican primary electorate. The first is the so-called MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, which Donald Trump essentially created – and remains dominant in the party. Then there are folks who don’t — at least not yet — consider themselves part of the movement.

The MAGA wing dominates the party – with roughly two-thirds support. It is solidly behind Trump. In Iowa (even with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the ballot), Trump won 75% of their votes.

By New Hampshire and South Carolina, Trump was winning the support of close to nine in 10 MAGA