If 2024 polling errors mirror those in 2020 election, Trump 'wins in a blowout,' CNN data guru says

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CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that if the 2024 presidential election polls are as off as they were in 2020, former President Trump "wins in a blowout."

Enten broke down current swing state polling numbers between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, noting that they show a race "too close to call." However, he pointed out that polls have been off significantly in recent elections, and if that’s the case this time, Trump could win by a landslide.

"But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman.

"What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia," he said.

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The reporter began by displaying the close race numbers between Trump and Harris in the seven battleground states. As his aggregate polls showed, Harris is up by one point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and up by two in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump, on the other hand, is up by one in North Carolina and Georgia, and two points up in Arizona.

Enten reminded viewers that these point differences are within the polling margin of error according to