I watched hours of JD Vance and Tim Walz past debate footage. Here’s what I learned

Tonight, Ohio Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will face off in their only vice presidential debate. Given that Donald Trump has publicly said he will not debate Kamala Harris again, this will likely be the final televised debate before the nation votes on Election Day.

Betting odds show that most people think Walz will prevail against Vance. And there is good reason for that. Walz has consistently had to debate in tough elections ever since he first ran for Congress in 2006. As a Democrat in a battleground district, Walz often had to defend his hewing to the Democratic line. Even in relatively easier races when he ran for governor, he faced tough questions on his record during tumultuous times.

When Vance went from being a critic of Trump to an acolyte and then a candidate for Senate, he significantly underperformed the top of the ticket in Ohio in his one race. He largely only won the Republican nomination on the back of Trump’s endorsement — which he then parlayed into becoming Trump’s running mate.

The Independent reviewed multiple debate performances from Walz and Vance’s career. For Walz, we looked at his first debate in 2006 when he ran for Congress; his 2010 re-election debate after he voted for Obamacare; and his 2022 debate when he ran for re-election for governor in the aftermath of strident Black Lives Matter protests.

For Vance, The Independent reviewed two of his primary debates when he was at the back of the pack, and one of his general election debates against his Democratic opponent, Tim Ryan. We are also including coverage of his second debate with Ryan.

Debates are inherently performance in their nature and are rarely about subtance. They focus on how candidates can pivot from an