How the NBC News Decision Desk projects races on general election night 2024

When NBC News colors in a state or district red or blue on election night, that’s because the NBC News Decision Desk has determined it can project a winner in that race. Here’s how NBC News projects winners, the steps it takes to verify results and the answers to some frequently asked questions about the process.

How does NBC News project the outcomes of races?

On Nov. 5, the Decision Desk will project 610 races across all 50 states, from the presidential election to statewide and congressional contests.

Projecting a winner means that the Decision Desk has determined that the trailing candidates cannot catch the leader and that the leading candidate will win the race. This determination is made through a comprehensive analysis, and the Decision Desk only projects a race when it is certain of the outcome.

Early on election night, the Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether it can project uncompetitive races. Competitive races are called based on analyses of precinct- and county-level vote returns. The analyses also examine differences between early and Election Day votes. In competitive contests, a careful analysis of how much of the vote has not been counted is a crucial part of the process. To reiterate, no race is projected until the Decision Desk is fully confident of the winner.

NBC News will not project a winner until after the last scheduled statewide poll-closing time in that race.

What kinds of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make?

Here are the key Decision Desk calls and characterizations our audience can expect to hear from NBC News on election night:

Too early to call: This characterization covers two scenarios. The first is that there might be a significant margin for one of