How an ‘October surprise’ could change everything in the US election

Today, former president Jimmy Carter is in hospice care in Plains, Georgia, where he has just celebrated his 100th birthday. But even now, some 44 years after his presidency ended, he has not gotten his due. Carter was defeated at the polls by Ronald Reagan in 1980, having been wrongfully characterised as a failed leader who allowed America to be humiliated by Iran.

In fact, he was the victim of a traitorous covert operation for which the Republicans were never held accountable. The real story has never been fully told. In 1980, the term “October Surprise” first became widely used in reference to efforts to win the release of 52 American hostages incarcerated at the American embassy in Tehran. Obtaining their freedom became a decisive factor in determining who would win the election – Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter.

At the time, of course, the Republicans were not even in power, so they had no authority to make any kind of deal at all with Iran. Nevertheless, the Republicans secretly sent weapons to Iran, for which they demanded an extraordinary quid pro quo: they wanted the Islamic Republic to keep the Americans in custody until after the US presidential election.

That’s right: the Republicans were arming Iran, a terrorist state, in return for which they wanted Iran to prolong the captivity of American hostages.

Transgressive as the Republicans’ position seemed, there was a powerful logic behind it; if the hostages were released before the election, the thinking went, the patriotic fervour that ensued might well put Carter over the top.

But if the hostages were still imprisoned when America voted, Carter would be seen as the man who allowed America to become a pitiful, helpless giant. As a result, the Reagan-Bush