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Harris will beat Trump, says election prediction legend Allan Lichtman

  • Professor Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will defeat Republican rival Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election.
  • Lichtman, who has correctly predicted most presidential elections for four decades, bases his forecast on a model he dubs the "Keys to the White House."
  • Lichtman predicted that Trump would defeat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, and that President Joe Biden would beat Trump in 2020.

The results are in, and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will defeat Republican rival Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election — at least according to the historian dubbed the "Nostradamus" of presidential election predictions.

It's the latest election prophecy from Allan Lichtman, an American University distinguished professor who boasts of having successfully predicted the results of every U.S. presidential race since 1984.

Lichtman revealed his decision Thursday morning in an op-ed video for The New York Times.

"The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States," Lichtman said in the video.

"At least, that's my prediction for this race."

His forecasts are based on an historical index model he dubs the "Keys to the White House."

The unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president's party.

If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger — Trump — is predicted to win.

Here are the keys, and Lichtman's determinations for each:

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of
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