Harris victory seen as most likely election outcome, according to CNBC Fed Survey

• Some of the top U.S. economists and fund managers now believe Vice President Kamala Harris will win the November presidential election against Donald Trump, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.
• 48% of respondents forecast a Harris victory, while 41% see Trump winning the White House. The result marks a shift from late July's survey, when 50% of respondents said they expected a Trump victory, and only 37% believed Harris would be elected.
• More respondents in the September survey said they thought Trump would be better for the stock market and the economy, but that Harris would be better for the country as a whole.

For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed as more likely than former President Donald Trump to win the U.S. presidential election, according to a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday.

The 27 respondents to the survey include investment strategists, economists and fund managers. Among the group, 48% see a Harris victory as the most likely scenario, while 41% believe Trump will win.

The survey was conducted from Sept. 12 to Sept. 14, several days after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump.

The latest forecast marks a shift from the previous CNBC Fed Survey released in late July, when 50% forecast a Trump victory and only 37% believed Harris would be elected president.

The July survey was released nine days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.

The previous month, when Biden was still in the race, 48% viewed Trump as the most likely winner, while 35% forecast that Biden would be reelected. An additional 17% were unsure or did not know.

Ever since Harris jumped into the race unopposed in late July, her presidential