Harris rapidly consolidates Democrats' support, and here's what that means for November

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Just a week after President Biden abandoned his re-election campaign – and his vice president quickly sewed up the support of the Democratic delegates – a series of polls are beginning to measure the impact of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, the Republican convention – and the impact of the substitution of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

The polls suggest the vice president is in a closer contest with Trump than Biden was. Indeed, according to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris has cut Trump's lead almost in half from 3.1 points when Biden dropped out (47.9 Trump to 44.8 Biden) to 1.7 today (47.9 Trump to 46.2 Harris).

In recent months, I’ve urged folks to focus primarily on Trump’s share in the polls – rather than the difference between the candidates. The mantra has been "Trump will get his number." His larger-than-life political persona is such that each voter has already decided what they think of him (positive or negative). Barring a seismic political event, it’s hard to see what would make anyone change their mind about him.

In the weeks before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, some accused me of spinning for Biden. And, yes, I did think that the bulk of the undecided were traditionally Democratic voters who might not have been ready to commit to Biden (primarily due to his