Harris has momentum, but the race is still tight. Here are the paths to the presidency

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Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and the Democratic Party has coalesced around Vice President Harris, the political world has changed.

After Biden’s dismal debate performance in late June, swing-state polls showed a small, but significant decline for Biden, enough that Biden bowed out of the race. Since Harris’ entry, though, she has seen a surge across the most competitive states with far more Democratic enthusiasm, but it’s still a very close election, an NPR analysis finds, that could go either way.

Republican former President Donald Trump currently holds a 268-226 lead over Harris in the latest NPR Electoral Map of the most competitive states (see map above), just short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Trump had led in the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan before Biden exited, but now the states are pure toss-ups.

Trump's leads in the "Sun Belt" states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada have been sliced in half since Harris got in because of the increased Democratic enthusiasm and her appeal to younger and nonwhite voters. Still, Trump retains small but consistent leads. That could change if Harris continues her momentum, but at this point, they are ever so slightly in the "lean Republican" category.

This analysis is based on more than just polling. It's also informed by reporting from the field, conversations with campaigns and also considers the history of how states have voted in the past. We also include a map strictly based on polling (below). That shows a slightly closer 268-241 Trump lead.

For the state polling, NPR's analysis is based on surveys aggregated by