George Santos and the ‘scandal penalty’

The Republican in Tuesday’s special election in New York isn’t just running against a Democrat — she’s running against the stench of scandal from ousted Rep. George Santos.

History suggests Mazi Melesa Pilip, the Republican, has a built-in disadvantage against former Rep. Tom Suozzi, her Democratic opponent: Voters tend to penalize the party whose controversy forces a special election — by a significant margin.

The candidate running from the same party as the scandal-tarred former incumbent has performed an average of 9 points worse than the preceding general election, according to a POLITICO analysis of races dating back to 2000.

The ”scandal penalty” isn’t universal: In the two-dozen races fitting this description, the party responsible for the resignation actually ran ahead of the previous election about a third of time. But more often than not, voters know why the special election is happening — and they punish the party responsible for it.

And sometimes, those who resign in disgrace see their districts flip to the other party after they left office during their terms. This includes those who resigned after being convicted of vehicular manslaughter, posting a shirtless photo of himself on Craigslist and engaging in a “throuple” with her husband and a former campaign staffer.

This record could cause problems for Pilip — and explains why Suozzi is referring to her as “George Santos 2.0” in the closing days of the race.

Santos won the 2022 election over Democrat Robert Zimmerman by 8 percentage points. The average scandal penalty from this century would result in a near-tie between Suozzi and Pilip.

Republicans acknowledge that the Santos scandal could hurt Pilip, but say that voters’ concerns over crime and immigration