French election preview: Polls show right-wing party leads runoff as opponents urge tactical voting

France is set to elect the right-wing National Rally (RN) as the largest party in government, yet no party may emerge with a clear majority in this tightly contested election as the second round of voting kicks off this weekend.

The first round, which occurred June 30, resulted in just 76 of the 577 constituencies in the French National Assembly determining their representative. Any candidate who did not receive an outright majority in the first round of voting heads on to the second-round runoff, which is set for July 7.

Those few contests that concluded in the first round revealed a lot about voter sentiment and indicated trouble for the current government after RN took one-third of the vote, the most by any party.

The current government is an "ensemble," a coalition of parties, including French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance (RE), Democratic Movement, Horizons, En Commun and the Progressive federation. Despite the assembly election results, Macron will retain his mandate as president until the 2027 election.

FRANCE'S RIGHT-WING NATIONAL RALLY LOOKS TO SEIZE ON RECENT ELECTORAL GAINS

Macron called the snap election after RN scored enormous success in the European Parliamentary elections in June. Polling before the first round of voting indicated RN would continue to dominate, but more recent polling ahead of the runoff indicates those returns have diminished and RN will fall short of a clear majority.

Wednesday’s poll indicates RN will end up taking between 190 and 220 seats, but it would need 289 seats to control the assembly, according to Reuters. Additionally, its closest ally, the Republicans, are projected to win – at most – around 50 seats, ruling out some kind of right-wing coalition to take control of the