Fox News Poll: New matchup, same result — Trump bests Harris by one point

No matter how many major events intervene, and goodness knows there have been several, the state of this year’s presidential race doesn’t seem to change.

Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by one percentage point in the latest Fox News national survey, 49-50%.

Last month, she was also behind Trump by one point, 48-49% -- as was President Joe Biden, with the same 48-49% result.

Between those two surveys, there was an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention was held, Ohio Sen. JD Vance was chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she was certified as the Democratic presidential nominee and selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and they held several campaign events with record-breaking attendance.

Yet the horserace looks the same. Here’s why:

By one percentage point, more Democrats back Harris (94%) than Republicans support Trump (93%), while the small subgroup of Independents goes for him by 8 points.

Trump retains 95% of his 2020 backers and Harris carries 93% of 2020 Biden supporters, while new voters (those who haven’t voted in the four most recent general elections) split 49% each. Last month, new voters preferred Trump over Biden by 7 points.

There is a 22-point gender gap, as men favor Trump by 12 points and women favor Harris by 10.

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Trump’s best groups include men, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a college degree.

For Harris, it is women, Black voters, those under age 30, and college graduates. Her numbers among each of these groups are a touch higher than Biden’s were in the July head-to-head against Trump, but