Following Conservative attacks, government releases internal data on the impact of carbon pricing

The federal government has released its estimate of the impact of carbon pricing on the size of the economy after it was accused by the opposition Conservatives of muzzling an officer of Parliament.

The modelling, created by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) in May and released today, projects carbon pricing's impacts on emissions and the gross domestic product (GDP).

The department's modellers took the rising price on carbon and imposed it on Statistics Canada's GDP figures. According to the data, Canada's emissions would be nearly 11 per cent higher by 2030 without carbon pricing.

The modelling says that amounts to nearly 80 million tonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gas emissions eliminated by carbon pricing.

The data also shows that carbon pricing is expected to reduce national GDP.

The government's release comes as the Conservatives are set to introduce an opposition motion Thursday that would compel the government to provide a copy of its economic analysis on the impact of the federal fuel charge and the output-based pricing system.

According to ECCC's figures, Canada's GDP would be about $2.68 trillion in 2030 without carbon pricing. With carbon pricing, it's expected to hit $2.66 trillion in 2030.

The data reflects previous analysis which showed that both GDP and emissions would be higher without carbon pricing. The data models the impact of the patchwork of federal and provincial/territorial carbon pricing systems and includes both industrial carbon pricing and the consumer version, widely known as the carbon tax.

A senior federal government source, who was not authorized to speak publicly, told CBC News the data does not approach what the government would consider «a robust