Five things to watch in Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses

CNN —

Iowa Republicans who are willing to brave record-low temperatures are set to kick off the party’s 2024 presidential nominating process with Monday night’s caucuses.

The Arctic cold largely froze the field in the race’s final days, with former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and others shortening their lists of scheduled events.

Now, Iowa voters will render the first verdict of the 2024 election, weighing in on which Republican should take on President Joe Biden in November.

Here are five things to watch in the Iowa caucuses:

Will Trump top 50%?

The big question about Trump’s performance isn’t just whether he will win — but whether he will do so in a fashion that demonstrates the GOP electorate has no appetite for a Trump alternative.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll, released Saturday, found Trump with 48% support — well ahead of Haley’s 20% and DeSantis’ 16%, and close to breaking through the 50% threshold.

Trump remains the clear favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination for a third consecutive election. What’s less clear is whether the road to the nomination will get more difficult after Iowa. Haley and DeSantis are still jockeying to see who’s left standing to take a one-on-one shot at Trump — but major donors and party officials who’d be interested in backing the winner of that race for second place will also be watching to gauge whether Trump is vulnerable at all.

Former President Donald Trump greets the crowd at a campaign rally Saturday Dec. 16, 2023, in Durham, N.H.

Why Trump’s hold on evangelicals is so hard for DeSantis and Haley to break

If more than half the party’s electorate shows up on the