Five areas could tell us a lot about the GOP on Super Tuesday
Fifteen states and one U.S. territory are holding presidential primaries this evening.
President Biden only faces nominal opposition on Democratic primary ballots, and barring any surprises, could get close to securing his party’s nomination tonight.
On the Republican side, 35% of the total delegates at stake will be settled.
Former President Trump comes into the race with formidable advantages. He has six times as many delegates as Haley, and has polled well ahead of her in recent national surveys.
Haley will be hoping for an upset to make this race competitive, and even if she doesn’t, she is likely to walk away with some delegates, thanks to varying rules.
SUPER TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BOOST TRUMP CLOSER TO CLINCHING GOP NOMINATION AS HALEY MAKES POSSIBLE LAST STAND
But regardless of the overall result, the vote count in certain parts of the country tonight will tell us something about Republican voters in 2024.
1. Will counties with high college-educated populations still trend Haley?
College education has been a useful indicator of Haley support so far this year.
In New Hampshire, 56% of GOP primary voters who graduated from college cast a ballot for Haley, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. She ran about even with Trump on college-educated voters in South Carolina.
That makes these counties, which have the highest share of residents with a college degree, worth watching:
- Falls Church, Virginia - 78.5%
- Arlington County, Virginia - 74.6%
- Pitkin County, Colorado - 63.1%
- Alexandria, Virginia - 62.1%
- Fairfax County, Virginia - 61.1%
Four of these five counties are in D.C. suburban areas; the other is best known as the home of the luxury ski resort, Aspen.
Haley will look to run up the score as much as possible in places like these.
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