Final Iowa poll: Trump maintains dominant lead before caucuses

DES MOINES, Iowa — Boosted by his standing with evangelical Christians, first-time caucusgoers and registered Republicans, former President Donald Trump holds a nearly 30-point lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll before Monday’s GOP caucuses.

The poll also finds Trump enjoying the backing of the most enthusiastic and committed likely caucusgoers, which could be crucial as the state grapples with subzero temperatures and even colder wind chills on caucus night.

“I know there’s a lot of controversy on him, but I just feel like he’s the man for the job right now,” said 34-year-old poll respondent Owen Monds of Des Moines, who said he’s caucusing for Trump. “You know, I don’t feel like anybody else who’s running is really qualified like he is.”

The poll shows former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley narrowly edging past Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place, although the gap is within the poll’s margin of error.

Yet while Haley’s first-choice support has ticked up, just 9% of her supporters say they’re extremely enthusiastic about her candidacy — substantially lower than the enthusiasm for Trump and even DeSantis.

“There is underlying weakness here,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said of Haley’s standing. “If turnout is low, it seems to me that a disproportionate share of her supporters might stay at home.”

According to the Iowa poll, which Selzer has been conducting over the last three decades, Trump gets first-choice support from 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers — followed by Haley at 20% support, DeSantis at 16% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.

Trump’s 28-point lead over his nearest competitor is down, though only slightly, from the 32-point advantage he enjoyed in December’s NBC