Economic 'misery index' that's predicted every election winner since 1980 looking good for Harris, but it's close

• The so-called misery index that has successfully predicted presidential elections for four decades shows Kamala Harris could be victorious, if trends remain.
• This gauge adds the unemployment rate and pace of annualized inflation together for insight into the intensity of voters' displeasure on the economy.

A gauge of economic misery that has a strong track record of predicting elections is tilting toward a Kamala Harris victory — but it appears tight entering the race's final stretch.

The "misery index" is the addition of the unemployment rate to the annualized inflation rate in the U.S. It has correctly predicted 15 of the past 16 races for the White House, including every presidential matchup since 1980, according to an analysis by research firm Strategas.

This index now sits at 7.02, below the level that Strategas has found would be consistent with the incumbent party losing the election. That number accounts for the modest decline of the jobless rate for August to 4.2%, as seen in Friday's jobs report.

Below a 7.353 level is needed in October for the incumbent party — in this case, the Harris-led Democrats — to come out on top, according to Strategas. The firm found this level through exclusive analysis of where the misery index would need to sit for the party currently in office to retain power, based on history.

In other words, a reading below that threshold essentially means voters are not "miserable" enough when it comes to the economy to boot the sitting party.

Beyond the unemployment rate, falling gasoline prices are also helping keep economic woes contained enough to aid Democrats, according to Daniel Clifton, Strategas' head of policy research. Still, he called the race "extremely close" in a Monday note to