Democrats have a plan for Florida and Texas. Is that a sign they’re worried about Montana?

While Vice President Kamala Harris’s replacement of President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket has given the party a chance at beating Donald Trump and they increasingly look likely to flip the House of Representatives, they face one problem: they still look likely to lose the Senate.

Polling shows Democrats performing well in states that Biden won in 2020. Representative Ruben Gallego is on track to overwhelmingly beat Kari Lake in Arizona’s race. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania either leads or is tied with Republican Dave McCormick, while incumbents in Nevada and Wisconsin look likely to hold their seats. Meanwhile, in Michigan, Representative Elissa Slotkin, who is running for an open seat, has a major fundraising and spending advantage against former congressman Mike Rogers.

But Democrats risk losing three Senate seats in states Trump won twice. Senator Joe Manchin, the independent former Democratic senator from West Virginia, will not run for re-election. And while Senator Sherrod Brown leads polling against Trump-endorsed Republican former car dealer Bernie Moreno in Ohio, Senator Jon Tester of Montana has fallen behind retired Navy SEAL and Republican candidate Tim Sheehy.

This has led some Democrats to say they need to try and flip seats in Florida and Texas.

Senators Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas are both running for re-election. Both narrowly won in 2018. Democrats feel there is an opportunity to flip those races — despite the fact Florida has not voted for a Democratic senator since 2012 and Texas has not sent a Democrat to Washington since 1988.

Cruz is running for re-election against Representative Colin Allred, a former NFL player who flipped a Dallas-area House seat in 2018. A new