Defeat For Ben Houchen Is Rishi Sunak's Biggest Danger Zone

Not long ago the thought of Tory mayor of the Tees Valley Ben Houchen being voted out was pretty much unthinkable. That the possibility of it happening next month is even worrying Conservatives suggests the local elections really could spell serious trouble for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Questions over whether Sunak could face a confidence vote following the 2 May local elections have once again been muttered around Westminster while Parliament remains dormant during the three-week Easter recess.

The locals, in which multiple councils, mayoralties and police and crime commissioners are up for election, are expected to be bruising for Sunak, who is desperately in need of something to demonstrate to restless MPs that the general election is not already lost for the Conservatives. Sunak must call a vote before the end of this year, and Labour's soaring poll leads suggest that the Tories would suffer a historic defeat if it was held tomorrow.

Currently only a small gang of Tory rebels are engaged in an ongoing, not-so-covert campaign to oust the Prime Minister, while the vast majority of Conservative MPs believe another change of leadership would be ridiculous, and only make them look worse to an already hostile electorate. Fifteen per cent of Tory backbenchers, or just over 50, would have to write letters of no confidence in Sunak to chair of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote on his leadership. 

But there is a growing belief that mass defeats next month would sharpen the minds of more moderate MPs and bolster the rebels' numbers. The fate of Houchen in particular on 2 May could prove especially explosive. 

Last month, PoliticsHome reported concern among some Tory MPs that Houchen and Conservative mayor of