Decode Politics: Muslim to Christian vote, divisions within Cong, to Left, what Kerala results show

The Congress-led UDF has won 18 out of 20 seats in Kerala, while one seat each went to the BJP and the CPI(M). Here are the leading takeaways from the Kerala result:

Kerala always prefers Congress for Lok Sabha

Kerala has always shown a voting pattern in the Lok Sabha elections that is different from the Assembly polls. Barring a few exceptions, the state has always preferred the Congress at the Lok Sabha over the Left. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were fought at a time when the Left had lost its ground elsewhere in the country, exposing the CPI(M)’s inability to stem the BJP juggernaut, which helped the Congress project itself as an alternative at the national level.

Anti-incumbency against state govt, not MPs

Along with a vote of protest against the 10-year-old Modi government at the Centre, a major factor that worked in the UDF’s favour was the anti-incumbency being faced by the eight-year-old Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left government in Kerala. On ground, even though there was strong resentment against the CPI(M), the party had avoided any debate over a mandate for its regime. At the same time, the UDF, particularly the Congress, fielded all sitting MPs, many of them representing their seats for 2-3 terms. The result shows that they remained insulated from individual anti-incumbency.

The CPI(M) wooed Muslims, but they stood behind UDF

The CPI(M) had projected the Left as the only alliance that could steadfastly fight the BJP at the national level. Right from the outset, the party made the CAA as its main poll plank, and alleged that the Congress was silent on it. However, the Congress and its ally, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), went on to win by big margins in all the seats in north Kerala where Muslims are a