Could Taylor Swift really swing the 2024 presidential election?

A decade ago, Taylor Swift liked to publicly mock a Jonas brother for dumping her over the phone. Today, her words may determine the future of US democracy.

Over the last few weeks, Swift’s endorsement has become one of the most coveted – and contested – prizes in the 2024 presidential election. After the New York Times reported that Joe Biden’s re-election campaign was desperate to lock it down, Donald Trump’s allies reportedly declared a “holy war” on Swift. Fox News commentators started urging Swift to stay out of politics, while a sizable contingent of rightwingers spiraled into conspiracy theories: that Swift is a covert asset to bolster Biden, that she and her boyfriend, Travis Kelce, are a set-up to bolster Biden, that the Super Bowl – in which Kelce will play as a tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs football team – is being rigged to bolster Biden.

All this fervor may seem totally out of touch. No matter how beloved she is, can a pop star from a Christmas tree farm in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania, really decide the 2024 presidential elections?

The answer is surprisingly complex, according to interviews with experts, self-described Swift admirers, and people who say they are indifferent to Swift. It is improbable that Swift’s opinion would be the deciding factor for a voter torn between supporting Trump or Biden – if such a person exists – but the pop superstar is far more likely to propel voter turnout. And if the rematch between the two politicians, who still have to win their primaries, turns out to be close, the Swift electorate may make the difference.

“We are not used to recognizing people like Taylor Swift with that much political power. That can be unnerving. We’re not used to female fandoms, perhaps, having that