Could North Carolina flip blue in 2024?

For the last three presidential election cycles, North Carolina, a red-leaning state, has favoured the Republican presidential candidate. But a January analysis by Moody’s suggests it could flip in 2024.

It projects that the assumed Democratic nominee President Joe Biden will flip North Carolina in Democrats’ favour by less than a percentage point.

It’s no secret that North Carolina’s red has appeared more purple in recent years. Mr Trump barely secured the state in 2020, winning by a margin of 1.3 per cent. Republicans only narrowly won a Senate seat in the 2022 midterms by 3.2 per cent.

Republicans currently have control over the legislature but the governor is a Democrat. With an electorate that is almost completely split between the two parties, neither one can afford to lose any votes.

Increasingly, it’s looking like the state will favour Democrats in the future. North Carolina has one of the fastest-growing populations in the country, with most people moving toward urban counties. Moody’s attributes that population boom to its shifting electorate.

“Population growth in the state has been among the strongest nationally since the last election due to a large influx of immigrants and residents from other states prompted by the pandemic and remote work… Since the immigration debate will likely be at the forefront of 2024’s presidential race and given the recent conservative drift of the Hispanic vote, the results in these key states will likely be very close,” according to Moody’s analysis.

Recent Moody’s Analytics shows Joe Biden narrowly flipping North Carolina in 2024

For months now, Democrats have been eyeing North Carolina as a potential flip state. Last year, North Carolina Representative Wiley Nickel urged Mr