Chuck Todd: Who has the most to lose in Thursday’s debate?

The toughest part in trying to gauge the potential impact of the first presidential debate is figuring out which candidate needs this more. A month ago, the answer was obvious: President Joe Biden. His team wouldn’t have pushed to hold an earlier debate if it hadn’t come to the conclusion that it needed to do something to shake up this race before the fall.

But one conviction on 34 counts later and it’s not nearly as clear now which candidate needs this debate more. Why does that matter? Because the less a debate matters in the moment to a candidate, the more risk-averse said candidate will become in the debate itself.

Based on my conversations with smart folks on both sides of the aisle, both campaigns feel a quiet confidence about their standing going into the summer and this debate. That wasn’t the case with Biden world just a month ago. The small but noticeable shift toward Biden in various polls has given his campaign its first evidence that former President Donald Trump’s legal problems might be affecting his vote share. Toss in the recent positive data indicating a drop in violent crime across the country, as well as this durable economy, and one can see why Team Biden is as optimistic about winning re-election today as it has been in over a year.

But even as Biden has strengthened, so, too, has Trump. While he has taken a very small (and potentially significant) hit in the polls post-conviction, his massive fundraising haul in the last month has allowed him to level the spending playing field with Biden much earlier than the campaign had expected. The windfall of cash since the conviction is nothing short of stunning.

In fact, structurally, one could argue that Trump is in a stronger position overall in his