China is ‘going to retaliate’ over Canada’s tariff hikes, experts say. How?

China will almost certainly retaliate against Canada after the federal government hiked tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and other materials Monday, experts say — though likely not in a way that puts Canadians in danger.

The new 100 per cent tariff on Chinese EVs and 25 per cent tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum will bring Canada in line with increased tariffs on the same imports announced by the United States in May. Both countries have said the moves are meant to counter “unfair” Chinese subsidies for its EV industry that will oversaturate the global market.

Beijing vowed retaliation against the U.S. when the American tariffs were announced, though it has yet to follow through. Canada shouldn’t expect similar treatment, analysts warn.

“They’re going to retaliate,” said Moshe Lander, an economics professor at Concordia University.

“China is not a country that just stands idly and accepts economic sanctions against it, which is really what happened.”

One key reason why, Lander and other analysts say, is the disparity between the U.S. and Canada’s economies and what China may believe it can get away with.

“U.S.-China dynamics are at a scale that is simply not the same for us,” said Vina Nadjubilla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

China’s reaction, Nadjubilla suggested, may be in line with how it responded to the European Union when the bloc imposed additional tariffs on Chinese EV imports as high as 36.3 per cent.

Beijing last week opened an anti-subsidy probe into European dairy imports, the latest in a series of Chinese probes this year into EU agricultural goods.

Although China’s commerce ministry said the probe was prompted by a complaint submitted in July on behalf