Canada might struggle to rein in surge of temporary residents, Bank of Canada projects

The Bank of Canada is projecting that the federal government could fall short of its goal to shrink temporary residents' share of Canada's population over the next three years.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced in March that Ottawa would attempt to reduce their share of the population from 6.2 per cent to five per cent by 2027.

But on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada predicted that the government would miss that target. The bank's monetary policy report — released as part of its announcement to reduce interest rates — said that non-permanent residents' (NPRs) share of the population has actually grown since the goal was set in March.

«NPRs represented 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April — much higher than at the time of the March announcement — and the share is expected to continue rising over the near term,» the report said.

«This suggests that it will take longer for planned policies to reduce NPR inflows to achieve the 5% target.»

CBC reached out to Miller's office and the immigration department for comment but have yet to receive a response.

The central bank report does note that there is «considerable uncertainty» about its projections.

«Details on how most temporary resident permit programs will be adjusted are not expected until later this year,» it says, adding that their scenario «will be revised as further measures are announced and more details on program changes become available.»

Targets expected to be ironed out over summer

Miller met with his provincial and territorial counterparts earlier this spring, and the targets are expected to be ironed out over the summer.

The bank's report comes as the government has been taking measures to temper the massive rise in people who migrate to Canada on a