Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

Vice President Kamala Harris is making a bid for the White House with running mate Tim Walz after replacing President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket just a few months before Election Day.

So how will Harris actually fare against Donald Trump and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, this November?

While the latest polls do not fully take into account how voters may respond to Walz as the Democratic VP pick, Harris now has a 2.4-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight.

On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls, though the race remains tight and there has been notable variation between surveys.

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In the seven battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — the polls are more volatile, and voters don’t seem to have made up their minds just yet.

Much of the latest New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted as Walz joined Harris on the campaign trail, and shows the vice president with a four-point lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, a substantial shift from Biden’s trajectory in the swing states.

Yet another YouGov/CBS poll from one week earlier (up to August 2) suggested that neither Trump nor Harris had a significant lead in any of the battleground states, with the two candidates in an overall deadlock.

In both Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has a three-point lead over Harris in the YouGov polls. Republican candidates have won in both states in every election since 2000, save for one.

Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, the 45-64 age group, and white voters with no college education. But in the