Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

Vice President Kamala Harris is making a bid for the White House with running mate Tim Walz after replacing President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket just a few months before Election Day.

As Harris closed out the Democratic National Convention last night, a brand-new poll shows that it had little impact on voting intention. But with Robert F Kennedy Jr. reportedly dropping out later today, the presidential race may undergo a shift.

So how will Harris actually fare against Donald Trump and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, this November?

Harris now has a 3.5-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls, though the race remains tight with variation in swing states.

Harris has not yet seen any positive boost from this week’s DNC, according to the latest national poll undertaken from August 18 to 22 by Outward Intelligence.

This poll still shows Harris far ahead with a +6 point lead over Trump, at 49.5 percent of the vote. However, there is no change from the same poll last week.

The numbers suggest that in a straight Trump-Harris matchup, both candidates will see a boost; but Trump would close in on Harris’s lead, at 48 percent to the vice president’s 52 percent.

We may not be far off from this possibility. Sources close to Kennedy Jr.’s campaign are reportedly suggesting that the independent candidate may drop out of the race as soon as today — and possibly endorse Trump.

It remains to be seen how his exit will affect Trump-Harris poll numbers, but this analysis from The Independent shows how RFK Jr. has higher support in states like New Mexico, and could free up some of the younger vote.

A Morning