Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

In less than 32 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

In a polling twist, Republican JD Vance has ridden the wave of success from the vice presidential debate against Tim Walz to see a significant boost in his favorability; which was previously at record-low levels.

Meanwhile, Harris maintains a narrow lead over Trump, but a new poll suggests that a growing number of Republicans may vote Democrat next month.

Just 1 percent of voters have said the debate changed their minds about how they will vote. So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.7-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks.

This week’s debate between Ohio senator Vance and Minnesota Governor Walz turned expectations on its head; with betting markets and pre-polls eyeing Walz as the presumed winner.

Not only did Vance “win” the debate, but his performance appears to have done wonders for his public perception, which had been suffering for months.

Our analysis before the debate found that Walz led Trump, Vance, and even Harris in terms of favorability.

Vance received an +11 point boost in favorability from this week’s debate, according to the latest poll from YouGov.

This leaves Vance in a neutral position, while voters had an overall -11 percent unfavorable opinion of him before the debate.

Most interestingly, Vance improved his favorability by an astonishing +19 points among Democrats; though overall, he is still at a net -52 percent negative score among this group.

Walz also received a more modest 3-point boost,