Biden’s fraying coalition and Trump’s struggle with moderates: AP data shows nominees’ challenges

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have secured their party’s nominations for president, setting up a rematch of the 2020 election.

While both men sailed through the primary season, their paths to a win in November will be more difficult.

An analysis of survey data from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and AP VoteCast highlights the two men’s electoral challenges as they square up for a second contest. Polling from throughout Biden’s time in office reveals a widespread sense of disappointment with Biden’s performance as president, even among some of his most stalwart supporters, including Black adults. That’s a sign that his winning coalition may be fraying and that as a result, Biden will need to work to build enthusiasm about his candidacy within his own base as well as among the moderates who helped propel him to victory in 2020.

Meanwhile, Trump, who has perennially struggled to broaden his appeal beyond his base, won his party’s nomination with limited support from moderates and independents. That shortcoming wasn’t an issue for the conservative GOP primary electorate, but it could turn into a bigger problem as Trump looks to November when those voters could play a pivotal role in deciding the election.

Some of Biden’s most important groups are unhappy with his performance as president

The Democratic coalition that sent Biden to the White House came in with high hopes about his presidency — which may have been a double-edged sword. AP-NORC polling shows that three years after Biden took office, the share of U.S. adults who approve of the way he’s handling his job as president has fallen more than 20 percentage points, from 61% in early 2021 to 38% last