Biden parallels? How Carter fared against Reagan in this stage of election cycle

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When President Biden and former President Donald Trump face off in an election rematch this November, one man will remain a one-term president.

Trump, a Republican whom Biden unseated in 2020, seeks to return the favor in 2024 as the incumbent Democratic president struggles with lackluster approval ratings reminiscent of infamous one-term president Jimmy Carter. As of February, Biden's job approval rating stood at 38% in a Gallup poll — less than one point above President Carter's record-low Gallup rating of 37.4% after his third year in office.

There is reason to believe that Biden today is in a weaker position than Carter was in 1980, when the Democratic incumbent lost re-election to Republican challenger Ronald Reagan. In March 1980, a Gallup head-to-head poll showed Carter at 58% to Reagan's 33% — but the gap would narrow in the ensuing months, and Reagan ultimately defeated Carter in a 44-state landslide with 50.8% of the popular vote to Carter's 41%.

There is no comparable Gallup survey for Biden and Trump in 2024, but other recent polls show a much closer race, with Trump maintaining a slight 2.1 point lead over Biden in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. A Fox News Poll released Sunday found Trump at 49% support, while Biden registered at 47%, a statistical tie within the