Biden has eight months to fix his Michigan problem

CNN —

If the Democratic voters of Michigan – and a handful of other swing states – are feeling uncommitted in November, Joe Biden could lose reelection.

Tuesday’s primary – in which tens of thousands of Democratic primary votes cast protest ballots over the president’s support for Israel – made clear that he faces a battle for his own coalition and political base that he must win if he is to defeat likely Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The stakes could not be higher since there’s a good chance that the candidate who captures Michigan in the fall will return to the White House for a second term.

A volunteeer holds a "Vote Uncommitted" sign outside a polling station in Dearborn, Michigan, on February 27, 2024.

Related article Takeaways from the Michigan primaries

But while Biden can seek to mitigate his issues with the state’s thousands of suburban Arab American voters, his chances of easing his vulnerabilities may depend on something that may be out of his power – the return of peace to the Middle East andthe end of Israel’s operation in response to the Hamas terror attacks last October.

Democratic primary voters in Michigan have the option to mark their ballot as “uncommitted.” In 2012, even President Barack Obama suffered 20,000 such defections. That was a blip in a cruise to reelection. But on Tuesday night, Biden got an unmistakable message. With 95% of the vote in, Biden had 81% of votes cast. But more than 101,000 voters had made their point by casting an uncommitted ballot.

The size of the uncommitted vote after an organized campaign by Arab American and progressive critics of Biden’s Middle East policy is the most tangible sign yet of how the war in Gaza is tearing at the fabric of the Democratic