Biden has bigger problems in Michigan than Gaza protest votes

Ever since Israel began its campaign in Gaza after the October 7 Hamas attacks, there has been much speculation around how President Joe Biden’s support for Israel will affect his prospects in Michigan – a state with a sizeable Muslim population.

Some Muslim-Americans – including congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American lawmaker in Congress – have chosen to vote “uncommitted” in Tuesday’s primary as a mark of protest over his handling of the conflict. And this has left some Democrats fearing that a poor showing in February might hurt him in the Novemmber general election in a state that Donald Trump won in 2016, before Mr Biden turned it blue again in 2020.

Most of the focus has been on Dearborn, a town with an overwhelmingly Muslim population, and the abandonment its residents feel after backing Mr Biden to beat Mr Trump in 2020.

But, while this may be the biggest talking point as voters cast their ballots, the support of Muslim Americans might actually be the least of Mr Biden’s problems in Michigan.

This demographic makes up only roughly four per cent of all of Wayne County, the most populous county in the state. Similarly, Arab-Americans make up only 2.1 per cent of the population in Michigan. Plus, a virtually uncontested primary means it will inevitably have low turnout, which means that any result – regardless of protest – will fail to give a full and comprehensive picture of Mr Biden’s prospects in the state.

Instead, Mr Biden’s bigger problem in Michigan will be with two demographics that could be overlooked: younger voters and African-American voters.

In 2020, Black voters propelled Mr Biden to the Democratic nomination when he won the South Carolina primary. Similarly, enough Black voters