As polling gets over in Assam today, how delimitation, changed demographics took centre stage

With the remaining four of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats voting in the third phase on Tuesday, polling will come to a close in the state. The seats where polling will be held on Tuesday are Barpeta, Dhubri, Guwahati, and Kokrajhar.

The focus in Assam during this election was mainly on the delimitation exercise, which is likely to shape outcomes in key seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has consistently gained ground in Assam, has been asserting that it will further increase its tally in the state. At the moment, the BJP has 10 of the 14 parliamentary seats. During the campaign run, BJP leaders underlined that allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal would help the party increase its tally to “at least 12”.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma went further and claimed that the BJP-led alliance would win 13 seats, declaring that it was “impossible” for it to win Dhubri where Muslim voters make up well over 85% of the electorate.

The delimitation exercise which was finalised by the Election Commission in 2023 was the first such exercise that was carried out in the state since 1976. The exercise brought about significant changes in the boundaries of many parliamentary and Assembly seats. One of the changes with a major bearing on this Lok Sabha election was the transformation of the Kaliabor seat. The seat was represented by the family of Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi for nearly three decades, with Gaurav himself representing it in the last two terms.

After delimitation, multiple Muslim-majority Assembly segments from Kaliabor were shifted to Nagaon and non-minority segments from Nagaon were transferred to Kaliabor, changing the demographic profile of both seats. Kaliabor, with its