As Biden Struggles, the Fight for the House Takes On New Importance

With President Biden struggling to right his listing re-election campaign, Democrats and Republicans are closely watching how the presidential contest is affecting races farther down the ballot.

And no contest could prove more consequential than the razor-close battle for control of the House.

Only four seats separate the Democratic Party from House control, a number still within the party’s grasp, even with the president’s struggles. But unless the party can turn around its bid to hold the White House, even that small hill could prove steep.

“This is a monumental election coming in November,” said Yevgeny Vindman, a retired Army colonel who helped blow the whistle on former President Donald J. Trump’s attempt to strong-arm the president of Ukraine into investigating Mr. Biden, and who is now the Democrats’ choice to hold Virginia’s most closely drawn House seat. “Really the best chances Democrats have are in the House of Representatives.”

Mr. Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month and the ensuing chaos at the top of the Democratic ticket have brought the battle for the House into sharp focus. That is because losing the White House would almost certainly cost Democrats the Senate as well.

It is simple math: For Democrats to hold the Senate, they would have to successfully defend every one of their contested seats, not only in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona, but also in the solidly Republican states of Ohio and Montana. Even then, with the West Virginia seat being vacated by Senator Joe Manchin III all but ceded, the party would have to win the presidency to break a 50-50 tie, or beat a Republican incumbent in the Republican states of Florida, Missouri or Texas.

Political