Are convention viewing numbers a hint about who will win the election? Don’t bet on it

NEW YORK (AP) — In a close election campaign with both sides looking for an edge, the party with more people watching their midsummer convention would seem to have an important sign of success.

Yet historically speaking, that measurement means next to nothing.

Eight times over the past 16 presidential election cycles dating back to 1960, the party with the most popular convention among television viewers won in November. Eight times they lost.

Through the first three nights of each convention this summer, the Democrats averaged 20.6 million viewers, the Nielsen company said. Republicans averaged 17 million in July. The estimate for Thursday night, highlighted by Vice President Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech, is due later Friday.

“It’s one of those interesting things about covering politics is that you see these indicators about what really matters, and a lot of times it doesn’t,” said veteran journalist Jeff Greenfield, who covered the Democrats this week for Politico.

Popularity contests in TV ratings don’t necessarily translate

The Democratic convention has been more popular with viewers in 12 of the last 16 elections, Nielsen said. Although Democrats have won eight of those elections, their candidate recorded the most votes in 10 of them.

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