AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New York’s special congressional election

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Republicans’ majority could tighten by another vote after Tuesday’s special congressional election in Buffalo — at least, temporarily.

Voters are choosing a replacement for Democrat Brian Higgins, a longtime House member who cited the “slow and frustrating” pace of Congress before resigning in February. Democrats have a long record of success in the 26th Congressional District, and their nominee is highly favored to win on Tuesday.

Rather than holding a traditional primary, local party officials handpick the nominees in New York special elections for Congress. Democrats chose Buffalo state Sen. Tim Kennedy, while Republicans nominated West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson.

After a messy redistricting process in 2022, New York just recently approved new congressional maps, which will go into effect for the 2024 election. For now, New York is filling Higgins’ vacancy under the old congressional lines. However, the 26th District changes very little under the revised maps, which means whoever wins the special election to fill the remainder of Higgins’ term will face a similar electorate in November.

A Democratic victory would shrink Republicans’ 218-212 majority by one member — but not necessarily for long. Three special elections in previously Republican-held districts are on the calendar before the end of June.

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