An unexpected generational realignment is scrambling the 2024 election

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A truism of American politics is that older voters prefer the Republican and younger voters prefer the Democrat.

That’s what happened in 2020, when Democrat Joe Biden won voters under 50 and Republican Donald Trump won voters over 50, according to exit polls. Biden’s margin among younger voters — he got 65% of voters ages 18-24 — helped him overcome the fact that Trump got 52% of older voters, who accounted for more than half the electorate.

In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College even though she got more votes than him, but the pattern of younger voters supporting the Democrat held. Clinton got more votes among voters ages 18-44, and Trump got more votes among voters ages 45 and older, according to exit polls.

In 2012, RepublicanMitt Romney lost the election, but he did better than DemocratBarack Obama among voters 45 and older.

Voters under 30 haven’t preferred the Republican since 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis in a landslide. Voters over the age of 65 haven’t preferred the Democrat since 2000, when Al Gore lost the election despite getting more votes than Republican George W. Bush.

Former President Donald Trump, meets with Senate Republicans at the National Republican Senatorial Committee office in Washington, DC, on Thursday, June 13, 2024.

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But the old rules don’t seem to apply in this year’s presidential election, where both candidates are old men and their fitness to serve is a top issue. Older voters are gravitating to Biden, and younger