‘An instrument of chaos’: Trump leads polls as Iowa Republicans weigh future of US democracy

As Iowa Republicans gather on Monday to choose their presidential candidate, a host of big questions surround the potential return of Donald Trump and the future of democracy in the US.

Ongoing court cases against Trump, the frontrunner, loom large. Threats against elections officials and judges in Trump-related cases raise the possibility of political violence in a tense election year. For some Republican voters, the belief that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump remains a core part of their ideology.

Trump also faces the prospect of being removed from the ballot over his role in the 6 January insurrection. Legal decisions using the 14th amendment as a basis for removing the former president from the contest will be heard by the US supreme court in February.

The former president has vowed to retaliate against his enemies, go after Joe Biden and his family, and weaponize the justice department for his political goals in a second term in office predicted to center around retribution.

Trump’s legal liabilities and heated rhetoric are not turning off his base of voters – they remain steadfast supporters of the Maga movement and think the cases against him are part of a conspiracy to keep him out of office. For voters choosing other candidates, though, the former president’s court woes and penchant for whipping up chaos have turned them off.

A poll of likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa found that 61% said their support of Trump would not be affected by a potential criminal conviction before the general election. The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll says 19% of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa go even further – they would be more likely to back Trump if he is convicted – though 18% said the opposite.

Jamie