An expensive, personal, very close presidential race careens toward an uncertain end

Six months from Election Day, American voters are confronting a presidential race that looks stable at a glance — and is roiling with uncertainty beneath the surface.

For the first time in more than a century, Americans will choose between two presumptive major-party nominees who have already served as commander-in-chief: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

But while the matchup has long been expected, Americans are sour about it: Election interest hit a 20-year low in the latest NBC News poll, and majorities of registered voters have unfavorable views of both men. That means barring a big change, the election will be decided by voters with negative views of both Biden and Trump — not only who they pick but whether they decide to participate at all in what’s expected to be the most expensive presidential race in American history.

Trump holds a narrow 2-point lead among registered voters, inside the margin of error, in NBC News’ April poll, in an election where both candidates appear to have a different theory of the case. Biden is leaning hard on issues like abortion rights, where polls show he has the upper hand, while utilizing a significant fundraising advantage.

But polls also show a majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job in office — an opening Trump has seized to hammer Biden on issues like the economy and the border, all while looking to energize his base as he faces dozens of federal and state charges across four different cases. Meanwhile, third-party candidates are seeking to capitalize on apathy toward the major candidates.

Here’s a look at where the 2024 presidential race stands six months out — in the polls, on the balance sheet, in key battlegrounds and more.

Trump’s narrow edge