Amid anti-incumbency, Jagan banks on candidate culls, welfare schemes as TDP-led alliance rises

Andhra Pradesh is going to elections for its 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats on May 13. Unlike in 2019, when these were held in the state in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections, this time the simultaneous polls will take place in its fourth phase.

The 2019 elections saw the Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) storming to power by sweeping the polls, winning 22 Lok Sabha and 151 Assembly seats with a vote share of just under 50%.

The then incumbent N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP), was reduced to only 3 Lok Sabha and 23 Assembly seats with a vote share of 39.1%.

This time, while Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy is banking on his welfare schemes, dubbed “navaratnalu (nine gems)”, and the support of the SCs (Scheduled Castes), STs (Scheduled Tribes), and minorities to help the YSRCP sail through, he faces some stiff challenges.

Firstly, the TDP, which leads an alliance comprising the BJP and Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party (JSP), seems to be resurgent now. Secondly, the YSRCP will have to take on Andhra Pradesh Congress chief and Jagan’s sister Y S Sharmila, who is likely to eat into the party’s vote base.

Jagan is also faced with growing anti-incumbency against his ministers and MLAs, some of whom are said to have lost connect with their electorate after the commencement of disbursement of welfare scheme funds through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT).

Jagan has dropped or shifted a slew of YSRCP MLAs and MPs in order to beat anti-incumbency, leading to an exodus of party leaders to other parties. Over the past few months, the YSRCP has faced desertion by at least six sitting MPs. The YSRCP chief, in the candidate list announced for all 175 Assembly and 24 Lok Sabha seats last week,