Abortion is a winning issue for Democrats. But will it be decisive?: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker examines whether abortion can be a decisive issue for Democrats, not just a winning one. Plus, the five things you need to know ahead of Donald Trump's first criminal trial.

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Abortion is a winning issue for Democrats. But will it be decisive?

By Kristen Welker

What stands out, politically, about the abortion debate after the Dobbs decision is how it’s become a 60%-40% issue in today’s 50%-50% political world.

More than 60% of voters disapproved of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, per a June 2023 national NBC News poll.

A majority of voters have voted to protect abortion rights in ballot initiatives in states from Kansas and Kentucky to Michigan and Ohio.

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And even in battleground Arizona — whose top court ruled that a near-total abortion ban is now enforceable — 62% of voters in the 2022 midterms said they believed abortion should be legal always or most of the time, according to the NBC News exit poll.

So abortion appears to be a winning issue for President Joe Biden and Democrats in 2024.

But will it be decisive? That remains to be seen.

Just look at Arizona in the 2022 midterms. Despite that near supermajority support for abortion rights, Democrat Katie Hobbs barely beat Republican Kari Lake in the state’s gubernatorial contest, 50.3% to 49.6%.

Indeed, 30% of Lake voters said they believed abortion should be legal, and 20%